Last week I wrote about how the Middle East is unlikely going to stabilize or may become even more unstable if several countries undergo the democratization process. Recall that researchers at the University of Maryland found that countries undergoing the democratization process (partial democracies) are more prone to experiencing instability and war than autocracies and fully-developed democracies because they are less capable institutionally to deal with unrest.
- The following link provides a graph illustrating how partial democracies (anocracies) are more prone to experiencing political instability than autocracies and fully-developed democracies: Link
I received a question after I posted the article about whether I actually believe that Middle Eastern was moving towards democracy. It’s a good question because rereading the article I realized that people might be under the impression that I anticipated a great, sweeping democratic wave to spread throughout the Middle East.
Today I want to clarify my stance on this issue just in case other people are confused about where I stand and talk a bit more about what I think could happen.
To clarify things, I do expect some Middle East countries to make an attempt to undergo the democratization process.
- For instance, you’ll probably see efforts made by the transitional governments of Tunisia and Egypt to bring democratic elections in their respective countries because the people demand that such elections take place.
However, I do not expect democracy to last long in the Middle East countries that undergo the democratization process. The main reason why I don’t expect democracy to last long is that I anticipate these partial democracies will be overwhelmed by the unrest that is likely going to come in the future with rising food prices and most likely very bad economic times.
- Under normal conditions, partial democracies are more vulnerable to experiencing instability and war than autocracies since partial democracies are less able to handle unrest. I anticipate global conditions are going to be much worse than they are today in the future, and as a consequence there is likely going to be a lot more discontent than there is today worldwide. The current level of discontent is enough to lead to the destabilization of multiple autocratic Middle East and North African regimes, so it’s not unrealistic to expect the future partial democracies of the Middle East to be overwhelmed by unrest that is greater than today's.
Meanwhile, I think it’s possible that some Middle East countries may not transition to democracy at all. Some countries may see one authoritarian regime replaced by another.
- Although authoritarian regimes are more equipped to handle unrest versus partial democracies, I expect that the unrest that is likely going to come in the future will challenge the stability of these regimes also.
Therefore, I do expect political instability in the Mideast for years to come regardless of whether several Middle East countries attempt to undergo the democratization process or not.
- I would not be surprised if the instability of the future may eventually bring the establishment of new autocracies throughout the Mideast and perhaps war in the Middle East.
One important thing that may arise from the political instability of the future is an increase risk of a major Middle East war where Israel is the target of several Middle East countries. The reason for an increase risk of war is that embattled regimes may seek war with Israel as a gamble to improve their chances of political survival.
- Embattled regimes may seek a war with Israel in hopes a war deflects the public’s attention from domestic problems.
- Embattled regimes may also seek a war with Israel in hopes a victory can make them popular with the people who dislike Israel (I don't believe these regimes can defeat Israel, but the regimes may believe they can win).
Regardless of what happens, I eventually expect a Middle East situation that the Antichrist can exploit. What we’re watching now may be the beginning of a process that makes the Middle East conducive for the arrival of Antichrist as a major player on the world stage...
