In Part 5 of the Signs of the End I went over two more birth pang indicators: wars and rumors of war. In this latest installment I will go over another birth pang indicator: Commotions.
Recall that Christ told His apostles that people will hear about disturbances/commotions prior to the start of the end times:
- Luk 21:7 And they asked him, saying, Master, but when shall these things be? and what sign will there be when these things shall come to pass?
- Luk 21:8 And he said, Take heed that ye be not deceived: for many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and the time draweth near: go ye not therefore after them.
- Luk 21:9 But when ye shall hear of wars and commotions, be not terrified: for these things must first come to pass; but the end is not by and by.
Also recall that “commotions” is a broad English term that can be interpreted in a variety of ways. The Greek indicates a more precise word than the one given in the version of the Bible I am using here. The Greek word is “akatastasia”, which means “instability” or “a state of disorder”.[1] This definition implies that political disorder, including revolutions and coups, is a condition prevalent during the time period that Christ described.
Like with previous birth pang indicators, if we are near the end times we should be seeing a noticeable change in the amount of political disorder in the world.
The Center for Systematic Peace (CSP) measures the fragileness of every government around the world and the fragileness of the global political system. The CSP supplies snapshots of the fragileness of individual governments and the global political system at various points of time at their website.
- For those who do not have a lot of time, the CSP notes on their website that there has been a 19% improvement in the fragility of the global political system since 1995. This means that the world’s political system has become significantly more stable in the past 15 years.
Another way to measure trends in political instability is to look at the trend in societal warfare (a category of warfare that encompasses ethnic, civil, and communal war) since the end of World War 2. The following graph illustrates the trend in societal warfare since the end of World War 2.
The graph above indicates that the prevalence of societal warfare has declined dramatically since the end of the Cold War. This finding is consistent with the CSP’s finding that the global political system has become far more stable over the past 15 years.
Terrorism
Terrorism is a phenomenon that has risen dramatically in the public’s consciousness over the past 10 years and a phenomenon that perhaps has contributed to people’s perception that the world is a less stable place to live in today than in the past. Despite the public being far more aware about the threat of terrorism, the CSP noted that the “frequency and lethality of ‘international terrorism’… remains at extremely low levels when compared with any other form of political or criminal violence” despite an explosion in the “use of ‘low-tech, smart bombs’ against “political and civilian targets” since 9/11.[2]. This finding is similar to a key finding the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) made in their study of 77,000 domestic and international terrorism events from 1970 to 2007. The CIDCM did not find any noticeable long-term increase in the amount of terrorism committed worldwide.[3]
Commotions Summary
The commotions indicator indicates that we are not near the end times yet because the overall level of political instability is leveling off rather than rising and the level of terrorism is not trending upward through time. If we were very close to the start of the end times we would see a major uptick in the commotions indicator like we’ve seen a huge surge in the earthquake indicator recently.
However, like wars and rumors of war, there is likely going to be dramatic increase in level of political instability around the world in the future. Researchers have identified several factors that drive political instability, and most of these factors are influenced by social-economic well being.
A future global economic and financial collapse will trigger great political unrest throughout the world. Governments and leaders failing to deal with major economic and financial problems in an effective manner will be endangered as people look to replace them with anyone who appears to be more competent at handling the situation than those currently in charge. The public’s desperation will give an opportunity for individuals and groups from all parts of the ideological spectrum a chance to take power through the electoral process, revolution, or military coup. We likely shall see new, moderate leaders take charge of some countries and extremists (right and left-wing) take charge of many other countries.
- This is just the tip of the iceberg of the consequences a future global economic and financial collapse is going to have on political and societal turmoil in many countries around the world. I wrote in detail about what other things we could see in Chapter 11 of my free book Prophecy Proof Insights of the Next World War. It’s going to get very ugly…
References
[1] G182 ἀκαταστασία Strong’s Hebrew and Greek Dictionaries
[2] Marshall, Monty and Benjamin R. Cole. Global Report 2009: Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility. Fairfax: Center for Systematic Peace and Center for Global Policy. December 7, 2009. http://www.systemicpeace.org/Global%20Report%202009.pdf Pg. 7
[3] Source: Hewitt, Joseph J. Jonathan Wilkenfield, and Ted Robert Gurr. Peace and Conflict 2010 Executive Summary. College Park: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. 2009. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/pc/executive_summary/exec_sum_2010.pdf. Pg 4
