Like with earthquakes, if we are near the end times we should be seeing a noticeable change in the prevalence of famine and pestilence. I will start by looking at trends in famine before looking at trends in pestilence.
Famine
The best website to examine the current risk for famine is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The website provides short-term and medium-term forecasts of the likelihood certain places around the world will experience food supply difficulties. Currently, FEWS NET forecasts that the potential for famine exists in various portions of Africa, Central America, Southern Asia (primarily Afghanistan) in the next several months.
It is difficult to directly compare the risk of famine today versus the risk of famine in the past. However, I’ve found an indirect way to compare the prevalence of famine today versus the past. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) tracks statistics about the number of undernourished people in the world.[i]
- While the existence of undernourished people does not mean that there is a famine in a specific region (there are undernourished people in the U.S.), there are likely food shortages in areas where there are large concentrations of undernourished people. The following graph shows the trend in the percentage of undernourished people in the world from 1969 to 2009 (this graph I made on my own using FAO data and some population data found on Infoplease).
The graph above shows that the overall percentage of undernourished people in the world has declined over the past 40 years. However, this trend began to reverse in 2008 and rose more sharply in 2009.
Food shortages are most commonly experienced in developing countries. The FAO also tracks the percentage of people who are undernourished in developing countries. The following graph shows how the percentage of undernourished people has changed from 1969 to 2009 in developing countries.
The percentage of undernourished people in the developing world has steadily declined from 1969 to 2006. While there is not nearly the same percentage of people undernourished in the developing world today as there was in the past, the trend is moving upward again.
- This upward trend is likely going to increase more as the global economic and financial system collapses and as energy supplies grow scarce in the coming years.
Pestilence
It is difficult to closely compare different time periods to see whether pestilence is a bigger problem today than it was in the past due to a lack of data. However, I feel we can safely say that today does not yet compare to time periods when there were major global pandemics.
- The Plague of Justine: A major bubonic plague outbreak originating in Egypt helped usher in the Dark Ages by eliminating 50% of Europe’s population between 550 and 700.
- Black Death: Another major bubonic plague outbreak killed up to 60% of Europe’s population between 1348 and 1350.
- The Spanish Flu: 1/3 of the globe was infected and an estimated 50 million people died between March 1918 and June 1920.
The potential for us to see a global pandemic similar to major pandemics of the past is quite high according to health experts. In fact, the World Health Organization currently has their current pandemic alert system set to their highest level: Phase 6 or “Widespread Human Infection”. While swine flu has not turned into the killer virus everyone last year feared, health experts warned that this is not the time for the public to become complacent because there are still other threats out there.
Summary: Famine and Pestilence
Trends in famine and pestilence indicate that we are not seeing unusually high-levels of activity compared to what the world has experienced in the past. This indicates that we are not very close to the end times yet. However, recent developments show that the prevalence of both famine and pestilence have the potential to soar in the coming years. Nevertheless, we should expect the prevalence of famine and pestilence to increase significantly as time goes on since Earth is experiencing the birth pangs that Christ forewarned us about.
References
[i] “The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Economic Crises-Impacts and Lessons Learned”. 2009. UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Rome http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i0876e/i0876e00.HTM
Technorati Tags: famine,earthquakes,pestilence,plague,hunger,swine flu,prophecy,end times,Bible,Christianity
