Yesterday a United Nations report entitled “Palestinian State-building: A Decisive Period” was released. The report claimed that the Palestinian Authority is ready to run a Palestinian-controlled state, but would be unable to make further institutional progress due to Israel’s actions.
Regardless of whether the Palestinian Authority is ready to run a state or whether the Palestinians should have a state, the United Nations report is likely going to have some impact on the Israeli/Palestinian issue over the course of the next several months:
- The United Nations is seen by many diplomats and world leaders as having at least some measure of respectability. Therefore, the U.N.’s assessment that the Palestinian Authority is ready to run a state likely provides the Palestinian Authority’s argument that they can run a state a measure of legitimacy in the eyes of many diplomats and world leaders. As a result, we could see more calls for the creation of a Palestinian state by different diplomats and world leaders in the future.
- Unsurprisingly, the U.N.’s report has emboldened the Palestinians. At least a few news outlets are now reporting that the Palestinians could push the U.N. General Assembly this September to recognize a Palestinian state.
- Today U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Barack Obama will soon renew efforts to get peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis going again. I would not be surprised if this announcement came as a reaction to yesterday’s U.N. report. I cannot imagine the U.S. wanting to be forced to address the issue of Palestinian statehood this September at the United Nations with the world watching…
Over the next few months I would monitor the effectiveness of the U.S.’s renewed efforts to revive peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. If the U.S. is able to bring Israel and the Palestinians back to the bargaining table for productive peace talks there is a chance that the Palestinians may not actually push the U.N. General Assembly to address the issue of Palestinian statehood this September. However, if the U.S. fails to revive meaningful peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, we could have a very news-filled September with the Palestinians perhaps pushing the U.N. General Assembly to deal with the issue of Palestinian statehood.
In the long-run, I would look out for the potential of an escalation in Israeli/Palestinian Conflict. The U.N.’s findings strengthen the Palestinian leadership’s sense that they can run a state now and perhaps give them the expectation that they can now rally enough support in the international community to create one (this is perhaps why they reportedly could push the U.N. to recognize a Palestinian state in September).
- The potential for an escalation in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict comes if the Palestinian leadership is unable to secure a Palestinian state soon. The Palestinian leadership may become disenfranchised with the diplomatic process and may consider conflict with Israel as a viable way to compel the international community to settle the issue of Palestinian statehood once and for all (the international community could be compelled to seek a way to settle the issue in hopes of stopping further violence).
- In such an event, I would not be surprised if other Mideast countries were to get involved to support the Palestinians and escalate the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict into a significant Middle East war. Middle East leaders could claim that they’re helping the Palestinians fight against Israel because they want to help the Palestinians create the state that the U.N./international community said they are capable of running but would not grant them under peaceful terms.
Eventually, I think it is probably going to be Antichrist who finds a way to resolve the issue of Palestinian statehood with "the covenant with many" (Daniel 9:27). In the meantime, we may be watching events that may eventually lead to a Mideast conflict that necessitates someone like the Antichrist to step in.
