An interesting phenomenon is currently transpiring in the Mideast as the Mideast is undergoing a significant metamorphosis. There is an ongoing battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran to shape the Middle East as the region undergoes a lot of drastic political change. The battle is currently being waged across several Mideast hot spots.
Today I highlight some of the significant hotspots where Iran and Saudi Arabia are vying to control.
As regimes across the Middle East change or destabilize there are opportunities for Saudi Arabia and for Iran-two adversaries-to gain new allies at the expense of the other and opportunities for each country to reshape the region more to their liking. Therefore, it is imperative for each country to take an interest in what is happening in the countries which are experiencing the most instability.
The following Middle East hot spots are not only hot spots because there was/is internal political instability but also since there are external attempts to influence what future role these countries will play in the region.
Bahrain: Iran wants Bahrain’s majority, Shia population to overthrow the current Sunni monarchy and install a Shia-controlled government in Bahrain. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia wants to maintain the status quo in Bahrain.
- Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have sent troops to Bahrain to help increase the Sunni monarchy’s security against the predominantly Shia protesters.
- Iran: U.S intelligence has found that Iran and Iranian-backed Hezbollah are communicating with Bahraini opposition groups. In addition, Bahrain has accused Iranian-backed Hezbollah of working directly with Bahraini opposition groups on tactics which can be used to undermine the monarchy.
Egypt: Iran wants to work with Egypt to see whether it can become a new ally. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seeks to prevent Egypt and Iran from establishing a diplomatic relationship.
- Saudi Arabia: Several Gulf countries (likely including Saudi Arabia since they are a member of a group of Gulf countries which voiced its concern about the prospect for growing ties between Iran and Egypt) have offered financial incentives to the current military rulers of Egypt as part of an effort to persuade them to not seek closer diplomatic ties with Iran.
- Iran: Iran is reportedly working to reestablish diplomatic ties with Egypt after 30 years of virtually no diplomatic contact. There were reports that Iran had appointed an ambassador to Cairo, but Egypt denied the report. However, both Iran and Egypt have recently expressed an interest in renewing diplomatic ties soon.
Yemen: Iran is seeking to meddle in Yemenis affairs so it can increase its standing and the Yemenis Shia’s standing in the country. Meanwhile, the Saudis and others are trying to avoid a situation where Yemen, a Saudi ally, descends into a chaotic civil war.
- Iran: The Wall Street Journal cites U.S. officials who believe that Iran has worked with Shia hardliners in Yemen to further destabilize the country.
- Saudi Arabia: The Saudis and other Gulf countries are attempting to maintain some semblance of political stability in Yemen by brokering a deal/compromise between the President of Yemen and the opposition that wants him gone as soon as possible.
Syria: Iran is attempting to keep the Assad regime, who is a key ally of Iran, in power. It’s not so clear whether Saudi Arabia wants regime change in Syria, but it can be argued that Iran’s loss could eventually become Saudi Arabia’s gain.
- Iran: It is believed that Iran is providing the Assad regime with assistance to help them keep down the anti-regime protests. Iran’s assistance reportedly includes providing the Assad regime with equipment, advice, and knowledge it learned from containing the 2009 Iranian uprising.
- Saudi Arabia: Iran has accused Saudi Arabia and other Saudis allies of stirring up unrest in Syria (however, I have not yet found any evidence that this has actually taken place...).
The next several weeks and months will be important in determining how the power structure of the Middle East changes. There is potential for Iran to become a bigger player in the Middle East by expanding its influence in countries like Bahrain. However, there is also potential for Iran to make no significant gains in the Middle East if its opponents manage to contain its efforts to expand its influence in the region. Therefore, it will be important to monitor what happens throughout the region…
