The unrest in Syria is increasing rapidly by the day as increasing numbers of people are calling for the end of the Assad regime and demanding freedom. The Assad regime has responded to the unrest primarily through violent crackdowns against those protesting and half-hearted attempts to bring reform.
- The violence has escalated recently with Syrian security forces shooting at mourners at several funerals last Saturday and with Syrian security forces driving tanks into towns to terrorize the people.
- Last week the Syrian regime lifted emergency laws that have been in place for several decades. However, the escalating violence by the Syrian regime and a new law requiring protesters to get a government-approved permit before protesting suggests that the regime is not serious about granting freedom to its people.
Today I want to mention a couple items that some people might not be aware of about the ongoing situation in Syria in hopes of increasing people’s understanding of what’s going on and what might be at stake.
The Assad regime is affiliated with the Alawis, which is a small religious group in Syria-they make comprise between 10 to 12% of the Syrian population. This is important to note because the Alawis are affiliated with the Shia branch of Islam, which is the same branch of Islam that those in the Iranian regime follow. The majority of Syrians follow the Sunni branch of Islam, which is the branch of Islam followed by Iran’s adversary Saudi Arabia.
- The fact that the Assad regime is affiliated with a small minority group which practices a different brand of Islam than the majority of the population suggests the possibility that there may be a lot more anti-regime Syrians than pro-regime Syrians.
- The fall of the Assad regime would open up the opportunity for the Sunni majority in Syria to take control of the country. The fall of the Assad regime would likely weaken Iran’s influence in the region and most likely strengthen the influence of Saudi Arabia since a Sunni-controlled Syria would likely identify more philosophically/religiously with Saudi Arabia than with Iran. Unsurprisingly, Iran, who does not want to lose a key ally in the Assad regime, is believed to be providing assistance to the Syrian regime to help it maintain its grip on power.
Syria and Israel are technically at war, but have co-existed under a ceasefire agreement since 1974. Israel currently controls the Golan Heights, which is a region that Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War. This is worthwhile to note because some Syrian protesters have called on the Assad regime to retake the Golan Heights. You can read about recent instances where Syrian protesters called on the Assad regime to retake the Golan Heights at the following links: Link 1 Link 2.
- I would not be surprised if the unrest in Syria eventually leads to a renewed effort by Syria to retake the Golan Heights. One possibly is that the Assad regime launches an effort to retake the Golan Heights in an attempt to distract Syrians from the ongoing protests and to rally support for the regime. Another possibility is that a new Syrian regime launches an effort to retake the Golan Heights in an attempt to appease the people who want the area liberated.
The situation in Syria is very fluid as it continues to escalate. The Assad regime is one of the most oppressive regimes on Earth, but what we’ve seen already in these Middle East and North Africa uprisings suggests that there is no guarantee that the Assad regime survives. The Assad regime will be in big trouble if/when ordinary Syrians no longer fear the consequences of speaking out against the regime.
