Many of you who monitor the news probably know by now that Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and a candidate in the upcoming Egypt presidential election, gave an interview where he proclaimed that there would be war if Israel were to ever to attack Gaza under his watch as President of Egypt. Here is some of what ElBaradei said in case you are unaware of what he said:
“If Israel attacked Gaza we would declare war against the Zionist regime."
"In case of any future Israeli attack on Gaza - as the next president of Egypt – I will open the Rafah border crossing and will consider different ways to implement the joint Arab defense agreement."
The Rafah border crossing is an international border separating Egypt from Gaza at the city of Rafah. The opening of the Rafah border crossing is a concern for Israel because it can be used as a place to bring weapons into Gaza from Egypt when it is opened.
I suspect the joint Arab defense agreement that ElBaradei referred to is an agreement made by several Arab countries in early 1950s called the “Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation Treaty Between the States of the Arab League”. ElBaradei talked about seeking different ways of implementing the agreement if Gaza is attacked. I suspect ElBaradei is focused on exercising Article 3 of the agreement, which says the following:
“At the invitation of any one of the signatories of this Treaty the Contracting States shall hold consultations whenever there are reasonable grounds for the belief that the territorial integrity, independence, or security of any one of the parties is threatened. In the event of the threat of war or the existence of an international emergency, the Contracting States shall immediately proceed to unify their plans and defensive measures, as the situation may demand”.
I am surprised that ElBaradei would make such threats since I viewed him as a relatively moderate person before. ElBaradei’s claim that he would declare war against Israel for any attack against Gaza is a claim that I would expect a leader from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to make.
- Israel occasionally carries out military operations that impact Gaza after militants in Gaza barrage Israel with rockets/mortars. If we take ElBaradei’s claim seriously it seems that a military response by Israel after a rocket attack from Gaza would be enough to “justify” a war with Israel since he says he would declare war “in case of any future Israeli attack on Gaza”. ElBaradei’s threshold to start a war against Israel is very low…
If ElBaradei were to carry out his threats, particularly the one to find ways to implement the joint defense agreement, he would probably meet with several Arab leaders and request that they help him punish Israel for an attack on Gaza. The following is a list of signees of the Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation Treaty Between the States of the Arab League:
- Syria
- Jordan
- Iraq
- Saudi Arabia
- Lebanon
- Egypt
- Yemen
Whether the countries listed above would actually agree to help ElBaradei punish Israel remains to be seen. The existence of a defense pact does not necessarily force a country to come to the aid of another country when that country does not really want to fight.
- For instance, the countries mentioned above may have been obligated to come to Iraq’s defense in 2003 Iraq War under Article 2 (which said “the Contracting States consider any (act of) armed aggression made against any one or more of them or their armed forces, to be directed against them all”), but none of the treaty signees actively helped Iraq militarily.
ElBaradei is a politician, so there's the possibility that he’s being a demagogue to gain the support of a certain audience. However, if ElBaradei is actually serious and manages to win Egypt’s presidential election the risk of a war between Israel and Egypt (and perhaps other Arab countries too) would be fairly high…
- This is an example of why it is important to monitor what is happening in Egypt even though Egyptians have already successfully ousted their leader. There is a risk that post-Mubarak Egypt could be a much greater threat to Israel’s security depending on who is its next leader…
