Last weekend a new Bloomberg national poll measuring Barack Obama’s popularity was released to the public. This edition of the Bloomberg national poll is particularly interesting because it breaks down Obama’s support by age group. The poll defines young people as those who are under the age of 35 and older people as those 65 and over. Here are the key findings of the poll that is reported in the article about the poll.
- Obama has a 56% approval rating among young people vs. a 41% approval rating among older people.[1]
- 41% of young people believe the country is heading in the right direction vs. 25% of older people believe the country is heading in the right direction.[2]
- More young people have a positive view of Obama’s handling of health care, foreign relations, and the economy than have a negative view.[3]
The results of this poll are revealing about where Obama stands politically and about something that I’ve thought about a lot lately with regards to America's youth.
Politically, Obama has lost a lot of his luster among older Americans. This is very important because older people are the most important group of voters in American politics since this group of voters historically has the highest turnout in elections versus all the other age groups. The Bloomberg national poll confirmed that is likely going to happen again in the 2010 election by finding that 75% of older respondents planned to vote in the upcoming election.
Meanwhile, the high-level of youth support for Obama is not as politically important as it seems. There are few certainties in American politics. However, one of them is that young people do not show up in large numbers to vote at election time. Since candidates need to get as many votes as they can to win elections it really does not matter a lot if a candidate has a large group of people supporting them if these supporters do not show up to vote at election time.
Together, these findings spell trouble for Barack Obama’s party in the 2010 election. Obama’s low approval rating among the most important voting bloc in American politics is a sign that a lot of people plan to vote against the Democrats in the 2010 election. Typically, the party that controls the presidency does lose votes to the opposition party, but this time around the loss in votes is likely going to be substantial based on the attitude of older people towards Obama and the direction that the country is going in. Fortunately for Obama, the next election isn’t for another seven months so he will have opportunities to win back seniors and to minimize the 2010 election damage.
The Bloomberg national poll article noted that the poll found a lot of optimism in America’s youth. Traditionally, young people tend to be optimistic about the future so this finding would not be a surprise if this was a normal time in history. However, this is not a normal time in history with a terrible economy with increasing government regulation that is sapping away job prospects and making matters worse. This poll finding confirms something I’ve noticed the past few years and more so in the past year about America's youth.
Unfortunately, I get the sense that most young people in America do not have any idea how bad the current situation is now and how dire it is going to get. I get the sense with my interaction with young people (I am young myself by the way) that they feel everything will be fine in the long-run. I notice that most young people are planning their lives like the same types of opportunities that existed for their parents and grandparents will be around for them in the future. It’s hard for me to hear my peers tell me about how they plan to get a good job, buy a house, get married, raise a family, etc. They have no idea that things are going to get much worse. It’s unfortunate, but if it’s God’s will then it must be this way.
[1] McCormick, John. “Obama Gets More Support With Young Voters Seeing U.S. Improving”. 27 Mar. 2010. Last Accessed 28 Mar. 2010. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-27/obama-gets-more-support-with-young-voters-seeing-u-s-improving.html
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
