Signs of the End Part 3: Earthquakes

Some Christians view recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and now Tibet as signs that we are living in the end times or signs that the world is experiencing birth pangs. I feel it is best to take a look at historical trends in earthquake activity before making any conclusions about whether we are living in unusual times. In this installment of Signs of the End I examine how current earthquake activity compares with past earthquake activity.


Recall Part 2 where Christ compared the time approaching the end times to a woman experiencing birth pangs. This analogy means that we will see the frequency of certain phenomenon like earthquakes increase as time goes on.


http://www.dlindquist.com/ is a research website that enables users to create graphs tracking global earthquake activity trends over the past 37 years (1973 to 2010). Although there are many options a person can choose to track global earthquake activity trends, I chose to track the trend in Magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes. I focused on large-magnitude earthquakes because these earthquakes are relatively uncommon and are the earthquakes that get people’s attention when they are reported in the news. If there is a noticeable change in earthquake activity in terms of strength and frequency we would see it in a noticeable change in large-magnitude earthquake activity over time.


The first graph displays the total number of Magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes each year from 1973 to 2010.

earthquakes-historical

At first glance, it seems the overall trend in large-magnitude earthquake activity is increasing over time. However, what’s most revealing about this graph is that there appears to have been more 6.0 Magnitude or greater earthquakes in the first 3.5 months of 2010 than in any other year between 1973 and 2009! This is means that 2010 is indeed a historic year when it comes to earthquake activity across the globe.


You will also notice in the above graph that there were some years that had lower levels of earthquake activity than others even though the general trend in earthquake activity appears to be rising over time. The graph below “smooths” out these annual fluctuations so that a general trend line in earthquake activity over time can be seen.

earthquakes-historical2

The graph shows that there has been a gradual increase in large-magnitude earthquake activity since 1990. The trend line appears to be beginning to rise at an exponential rate which is an ominous trend. If this trend continues we would see much more large-magnitude earthquake activity than what we are seeing now.


Earthquakes Summary
The trend in earthquake activity indicator indicates that the end times is approaching and supports the notion that we are living in birth pangs. We are seeing a rising number of large-magnitude earthquakes around the world over time. In addition, the rate of change that we are seeing a rising amount large-magnitude earthquake activity (the acceleration) is also rising over time.


I focus on two more birth pangs indicators in Part 4: famines and pestilence.