There are several reports today that Saudi Arabia has more than 1,000 troops to Bahrain to help the Bahraini monarchy to contain/quell a popular uprising that has begun to overwhelm the Bahraini monarchy.
- Bahrain’s opposition responded to this news by stating that Saudi Arabia’s move is the start of an "undeclared war".
I’ve read some rumors this morning that other countries in the region like the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait may intervene as well in Bahrain to support the vulnerable Bahraini monarchy, but these are just rumors at the moment…
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Bahrain creates a variety of new risks in the Mideast. Today I want to briefly discuss a couple of important, new risks that now arise after Saudi Arabia’s military intervention.
Regional Shia Uprising & Regional Sectarian Violence
The Bahraini population consists of approximately 70% Shia, who feel they have been repressed and discriminated by the Sunni monarchy. The protesters in Bahrain have repeatedly called for democratic reform and better access to government jobs (which primary go to the Sunnis at the moment).
We already know that Saudi Arabia's intervention is viewed as "war” by Bahrain's opposition. The concern now is that Shia living around the region may view the predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the predominantly Shia Bahrain as a regional attempt to repress the Shia, which could then lead to Shia populations living in countries controlled by Sunni-regimes/monarchies to rise up against these regimes before these regimes/monarchies move to further repress them.
- Cornerstone Global’s Ghanem Nuseibeh believes Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are the most vulnerable in this scenario:
A related risk is an increase in sectarian violence in Bahrain and around the region as Sunni and Shia vie for power according to Huseibeh:
Iran’s Intervention
Many geopolitical analysts perceive that there is an ongoing regional power struggle between the Sunni monarchy of Saudi Arabia and the Shia regime of Iran. Many geopolitical analysts believe that Bahrain is currently the key hotspot of this regional power struggle with its Sunni monarchy attempting to holdback a predominantly Shia uprising.
- The Saudi monarchy does not want to see the Bahraini monarchy toppled out of fear of what might in Saudi Arabia and out of fear that Iran could be emboldened
- Iran has interest in seeing the Bahraini monarchy toppled because its toppling could give Iran a new, regional ally at the expense of Saudi Arabia and potentially force a repositioning of the U.S.'s 5th fleet, which is currently headquartered in Bahrain. In addition, some within the Iranian regime regard Bahrain as the 14th province of Iran.
A consequence of Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Bahrain is that it may now give Iran an excuse to intervene in Bahrain in a more open way. Saudi Arabia’s move to help the Bahraini monarchy might be perceived by Iran as a bold attempt to prevent a Shia, pro-Iranian regime from arising in Bahrain. Iran may move to counterbalance Saudi Arabia’s move by providing more open support to the Bahrain opposition to resist the Saudis, the Bahraini monarchy, and anyone else that tries to keep the Bahraini monarchy in power.
- Iran can be more overt in providing support to the Bahrain opposition since it can cite Saudi Arabia’s open move to provide military help to Bahrain as precedent.
If Iran intervenes in Bahrain we could see a significant escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran and could see the situation in Bahrain become a lot more dangerous…
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s attempt to stabilize Bahrain brings risks that may lead to a further destabilization of the region.
- This is definitely a situation to monitor closely since a significant percentage of the world’s oil comes from Saudi Arabia and from the region. If the region destabilizes further from Saudi Arabia’s move we could see higher oil prices and potentially an oil shock, especially if some of that instability is in Saudi Arabia.
