As people watch what is going on in Libya and elsewhere, tensions between Israel and the Palestinians have escalated dramatically over the past few days.
- Last Saturday Hamas fired dozens of mortars into Israel, which represented the biggest attack in at least two years.
- Israel and Palestinians clashed at the border of the Gaza Strip yesterday.
- Today a bomb exploded at Jerusalem bus stop injuring dozens of people and killing at least one person. According to the police, this is the first terrorist attack in four years that featured an explosion in Jerusalem. In addition, several rockets and mortar shells were fired into Israel today from Gaza.
These recent events are significant because they seem to represent a return to hostilities between the Palestinians and Israel after a period of relative calm or what Israeli politician Nachman Shai referred to today as "the quiet period" (which he feels is ending).
- The nature of the attacks seen over the past few days (like today's bombing and the large number of the mortars fired last Saturday) have not been seen in years. The nature of these attacks suggest that these attacks are not one time events, but instead part of a longer-term terror campaign. I do not think the Palestinians would launch such major attacks against Israel unless they were ready to face the prospect of a prolonged conflict with Israel…
- Meanwhile, Israeli government officials seem ready to respond to these attacks with force
A few weeks ago I mentioned the possibility that Israel may become a target of several Middle East countries in the future. Here is what I wrote:
One important thing that may arise from the political instability of the future is an increase risk of a major Middle East war where Israel is the target of several Middle East countries. The reason for an increase risk of war is that embattled regimes may seek war with Israel as a gamble to improve their chances of political survival.
- Embattled regimes may seek a war with Israel in hopes a war deflects the public’s attention from domestic problems.
- Embattled regimes may also seek a war with Israel in hopes a victory can make them popular with the people who dislike Israel (I don't believe these regimes can defeat Israel, but the regimes may believe they can win)
The concern I have with what seems to be the return of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to the forefront is that it may make it easier for embattled regimes to find a way to get involved in a war against Israel. Embattled regimes may now have an “excuse” to get their countries involved in a war against Israel... Embattled regimes can now claim that they’re getting involved in a war against Israel to show support for the Palestinian's cause instead of needing to come up with an excuse to start a war with Israel unprovoked.
- The country I suspect would be the most likely to join the Palestinians in war in the near-term is Syria. The Syrian regime is finally facing a significant number of anti-government protests which are also significant in size (several thousand protesters in some of the protests). The Syrian regime could join the Palestinians in a war against Israel as a way to diffuse the protests in their country since protesting against the government at a time of war against Israel may be seen as “treasonous” by many in Syria.
- Remember, Iran and Hezbollah would be obligated to join the war against Israel if Syria gets involved since each have agreed to come to each other’s defense in case of a war against Israel arises.
The escalation in tensions between Israel and the Palestinians comes at a time of large political instability in the Middle East and North Africa. I don’t think we are going to see much calm in that part of the world anytime soon with the way things are going… The areas impacted by instability keeps growing by the week…
