Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the current Mideast instability could last for a prolonged period of time:
"We are going through an unstable transitional era that has the potential to continue for many years."
Netanyahu’s warning reminded me of a research finding I read a little more than a year ago about the fragility of countries that undergo the transition from an autocracy into a democracy.
- Today I’ll share this research finding with you and relate this research finding to what we may see in the future in the Middle East.
Understanding the nature of the democratization process is important because several countries are about to undergo this process shortly. For instance, Tunisia and Egypt are going to soon attempt to transition from autocracies to democracies while other countries like Bahrain may soon enter a transition period if Bahrainis manage to oust their ruler or succeed to persuade their ruler to begin instituting significant democratic reforms. Other countries could soon follow if people demand democratic reform like those in Egypt and Tunisia.
At first glance, one would expect a country that ousted its ruler to stabilize once it begins the democratization process since people will finally have an opportunity to have their voices heard. However, researchers have found that this is a misnomer. Researchers at the University of Maryland’s Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) noted that the democratization process brings with it a period of relative instability:
“Undoubtedly, the process of democratization is a welcome development because it brings desirable qualities to governance (e.g., greater citizen participation, broader competition for leadership positions, more expansive civil liberties, etc.). For many observers, though, the heightened dangers of instability during this period are often under-appreciated”.[1]
The transition from an autocracy to a fully-developed democracy can often take a country several years. Countries during this transition period can be characterized as “partial democracies” because they lack some qualities of a fully-developed democracy. Researchers at the CIDCM found that partial democracies are actually more vulnerable to experiencing instability and war than established autocracies and mature democracies.[2]
- The reason partial democracies are more vulnerable to experiencing instability and war is that they are less capable of dealing with “group grievances” and managing “the competition between groups that vie for political power” than mature democracies and less capable of repressing societal unrest than autocracies.[3] In other words, partial democracies are institutionally less-equipped to deal with unhappy people who want influence than other political systems.
- The CIDCM noted “a strong empirical relationship between partial democracy and the future onset of instability or conflict”.[4]
The CIDCM’s findings suggest that the Middle East is unlikely going to become a stable region in the next several years even if democracy is brought to several countries in the region. Furthermore, the CIDCM’s findings suggest that the Middle East has the potential to become even more unstable than it was before if several countries undergo the democratization process since partial democracies tend to be less stable and more prone to conflict than autocracies and fully-developed democracies.
- Perhaps the current regional unrest is just the start of a prolonged period of political instability in the region… Time will tell, but I do not disagree with Netanyahu’s thought that there could potentially be years of instability to come.
Final Note: I am not advocating the continued existence of oppressive autocratic regimes in several Middle East and Northern African countries. I am only noting a research finding I read and discussing how this research finding may help us to understand what might happen in the future in the region.
References
[1] Hewitt, Joseph J. Jonathan Wilkenfield, and Ted Robert Gurr. Peace and Conflict 2010 Executive Summary. College Park: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. 2009. Pg 9
[2] Ibid Pg 9
[3] Ibid. Pg 9
[4] Ibid Pg 9
