One week ago Hosni Mubarak resigned from his position as Egypt’s President and fled to the Red Sea resort Sharm el Sheikh. Since Mubarak’s departure there have been some significant developments in the Middle East that are worth highlighting. Today I’ll highlight some of these significant developments.
An Update on the Fate of Egypt’s Peace Treaty with Israel
The Egyptian military is in control of Egyptian policymaking for at least the next six months before it is scheduled to handover power to a newly-elected civilian government. The Egyptian Army has pledged to uphold the peace treaty with Israel while they have control of Egyptian policymaking. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Egypt will disannul its peace treaty with Israel during the next six months. However, the peace treaty’s fate is uncertain after six months because the newly-elected civilian government will decide whether they will honor the treaty or not. Consequently, it will be important to monitor which candidates will run for President of Egypt and monitor what the top presidential candidates stand for.
- I wrote about how the cancellation of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel could have Bible prophecy implications a couple of weeks ago. The article can be found here if you are interested in reading it: Link
The Uprisings Have Spread
Many people expected the uprisings to spread throughout the region once Mubarak resigned. After just one week it is apparent that people living throughout the region have been inspired or emboldened to demand change. The following countries have seen significant anti-government protests since last Friday:
The list of countries may grow in the coming days, especially if any of the anti-government protests mentioned on this list succeed to bring reform or succeed to oust a ruler.
The Potential for an Oil Shock Still Exists
A major concern expressed these past couple of weeks is the potential for the growing instability in the region to lead to an oil shock. Amazingly, the price of oil has changed little in the past week even though there are now significant anti-government protests in important oil producing countries like Algeria and Libya.
Meanwhile, oil traders are closely monitoring the major uprising in Bahrain because Bahrain borders Saudi Arabia (in fact, Bahrain’s capital is only 4 hours away from Saudi Arabia’s capital). The concern is that the political unrest in Bahrain could spread to Saudi Arabia since the two countries are so close to each other.
- In fact, one member of the Saudi royal family expressed concern that Saudi Arabia could soon see the type of protests seen in Bahrain and in other countries if reforms are not implemented soon in Saudi Arabia:
I don’t think the lack of movement in the price of oil suggests that the risk for an oil shock has passed. I think it’s way too early to dismiss the possibility for an oil shock to arise as a result of the growing regional instability:
- The Algerian and Libyan governments have not yet succeeded in ending anti-government protest movements in their countries despite resorting to violence to dissuade anti-government protesters from organizing protests. As long as anti-government protests continue in both countries, the potential for these protest movements to grow into something more difficult for these governments to control exists.
- In addition, the risk for the instability to spread to Saudi Arabia is rising with the major instability that has arisen in Bahrain.
Overall Assessment After One Week
The Middle East has become more unstable since the uprising in Egypt succeeded to oust Hosni Mubarak one week ago. Middle Easterners appear emboldened by what happened in Egypt and Tunisia and are now pressuring their governments to enact reform.
It’s difficult to get a feel of what is going to happen because there are so many possible outcomes.
- I’ve highlighted the risk for an oil shock and the risk for Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt to get disannulled because these are two potential outcomes that could have a major global and Bible prophecy implications.
Nevertheless, the growing political instability (commotions) we are hearing about seems consistent with what we are supposed to hear about before the Second Coming of Christ.
- Luk 21:9 But when ye shall hear of wars and commotions, be not terrified: for these things must first come to pass; but the end is not by and by.
As we watch what unfolds in the Middle East in the coming days, weeks, and months we need to remember that these things must happen, but it’s not the end yet...
