The first two parts of the End Times Cost of Food (Link 1) (Link 2) focused on estimating how much more expensive wheat will become in the future when the famine conditions following the opening of the third seal apply on Earth. Today I want to focus on barley by trying to give you some idea of how much more expensive barley will become in the future.
Revelation 6:6 says that a penny (denarius) will be able to buy three measures (choenixes or approximately a dry quart) of barley following the opening of the third seal.
- Rev 6:5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
- Rev 6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
Unlike wheat, it’s difficult to quantify how much more expensive the price of barley mentioned in Revelation 6:6 is compared to the price people normally paid in the first century A.D. using the Bible. The main reason is that the Bible does not mention how much barley cost under normal supply conditions during the days of the New Testament like it does for wheat (Matthew 20).
- A barley price is given in 2 Kings 7:1-5, but it is difficult to compare this price with Revelation 6:6’s price since the barley price in 2 Kings 7:1-5 is given in shekels and the inflation rate between the time of 2 Kings 7:1-5 and the time when the Book of Revelation was written is unknown.
However, several Bible commentators mention that a person could buy 24 choenixes of barley in the first century A.D with just one denarius. If this price is accurate, then John described an 800% increase in the price of barley compared to what people normally paid in the first century A.D.
- The very dramatic increase in the price of barley that John may have described is indicative of a tremendous shortage of food because prices generally do not increase this much without a major supply shortage.
What If Three Choenixes Cost a Day’s Wages?
One interpretation of Revelation 6:6’s barley price is that a day’s wages will only buy three choenixes of barley. I've calculated how much three choenixes of barley would likely cost at the minimum in the United States today if a day's wages could only buy three choenixes of barley in case anyone was curious.
- The federal minimum wage in the United States is $7.25 an hour (each state has their own minimum wage laws, so I’ll use the federal minimum wage to make a generalization about the entire country).
- The typical work day in the United States is around 8 hours.
- Three choenixes of barley would theoretically cost $58 ($7.25 x 8) today if the conditions associated with the opening of the third seal were prevalent on Earth right now and we assume a day’s wages could only buy three choenixes of barley. At the time of this writing, three choenixes of barley costs approximately $0.43 given a $4.70 barley price per bushel, so prices would need to increase by an astronomical amount (approximately 13338%).[1]
(See Part 1 for my thoughts on the idea that a day's wages will only be able to buy a choenix of wheat if you haven't read it already. It'll give you some idea of what I think of the idea that a day's wages will only be able to buy three choenixes of barley).
Another Potential Way to View Revelation 6:6
Another way to interpret the barley price listed in Revelation 6:6 is to say that the actual metal value of a denarius will be able to purchase three choenixes of barley following the opening of the third seal.
- Rev 6:5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
- Rev 6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
(See Part 2 for a complete discussion on how to find the metal value of a denarius if you are unfamiliar with the concept that a denarius has metal value).
The Choenix/Denarius Ratio for Barley
We can create a measure that can potentially be used to track how close the price of barley may be to fulfilling the conditions of the third seal. Once again, after the opening of the third seal the price for three choenixes of barley will be equal to the value of a denarius. This statement is reflected in the following equation:
3 x Price for a Choenix of Barley = Value of a Denarius
The above equation can be rearranged using simple algebra to create a ratio between the price for three choenixes of barley and the value of a denarius, which I’ll call the “choenix/denarius ratio for barley”. The choenix/denarius ratio for barley is displayed in the following equation:
3 x Price for a Choenix of Barley = 1
Value of Denarius
The choenix/denarius ratio for barley will equal 1 during the End Times because the value of a denarius will be the same as the price for 3 choenixes of barley. In addition,
- The choenix/denarius ratio for barley will be less than 1 when the value of a denarius is greater than three times the price for a choenix of barley. This means that a denarius can buy more than 3 choenixes of barley.
- The choenix/denarius ratio for barley will be greater than 1 when the value of a denarius is less than three times the price for a choenix of barley. This means that a denarius is not enough to buy 3 choenixes of barley.
Like with wheat, I was curious about how the choenix/denarius ratio for barley has moved over time. I calculated the choenix/denarius for barley almost every month over the past 35-plus years using monthly barley price data[2] and monthly silver price data[3] and used the results to create the following graph to see how the ratio has moved through time. Link
The choenix/denarius ratio for barley has stayed well below 1 over the past 35-plus years, which suggests we have not yet seen the type of famine that will be seen during the End Times. The closest we got to seeing a choenix/denarius ratio equal to 1 was in the 1970s when there was a major global food crisis.
Like with wheat, the current choenix/denarius ratio for barley is near historical lows mostly due to the fact that the price of silver has risen much more than the price of barley over the past several years.
Equalizing the Choenix/Denarius Ratio for Barley
We can get some idea of how much the price of barley may rise in the future by finding how much the price of barley has to rise today in order to establish a choenix/denarius ratio for barley equal to 1. The following is how to find out how much the price of barley must appreciate to create a choenix/denarius ratio for barley equal to 1 today:
- The metal content of a denarius is valued at approximately $3.17 at the time of this writing (February 17 at 1:15 PM/EST).[4]
- In order to create a choenix/denarius ratio for barley equal to 1 the value of 3 choenixes of barley must be equal to the value of a denarius or approximately $3.17. This is reflected in the following equation:
3 x Price for a Choenix of Barley = $3.17 (Value of a Denarius)
- If we divide $3.17 by 3, we’ll find that the price for a choenix of barley must be approximately $1.056 to be in accordance with Revelation 6:6 today (number was rounded).
- The most recent price quote I’ve found for a bushel of barley is $4.70. A bushel of barley weighs approximately 47.31 lbs so if we divide $4.70 by 47.31 lbs we’ll find that barley is valued at approximately $0.10 per lbs (number was rounded).
- A choenix of barley weighs approximately 1.459 lbs, so if we multiply 1.459 by approximately $0.10 we’ll find that a choenix of barley is valued at approximately $0.14(number was rounded).
- If we divide approximately $1.056 by approximately $0.14 we’ll find that the price of barley needs to rise by approximately 728.7% to be in accordance with Revelation 6:6 (number was rounded). This translates to a bushel of barley costing approximately $34.25.
The calculation above suggests that the price of barley must appreciate significantly in the future. Saying that the price of barley must increase by 728.7% is the same as saying that the price of barley must increase by 7.287 times
The calculation of the barley price above applies for a denarius metal value of approximately $3.17. The metal value of a denarius is unlikely going to be valued at approximately $3.17 when the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 apply (since a denarius contained approximately 0.10 troy ounces of silver around the time when the Book of Revelation and the price of silver fluctuates), so the price of barley is unlikely going to be valued at $1.056 per choenix when the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 apply. The calculation above only illustrates what the barley price would be if the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 applied today.
Conclusion
The price of barley is relatively cheap compared to what it is going to be in the future, especially the time period following the opening of the third seal. Like wheat, the degree that the price of barley must increase now to be in accordance with Revelation 6:6 suggests that barley supplies are relatively plentiful compared to what they’ll be like in the future. During the End Times barley will be scarce as famine (potential both natural and man-made) impacts the Earth.
Notes and References
[1] The most recent price quote I’ve found for a bushel of barley is $4.70. A bushel of barley weighs approximately 47.31 lbs so if we divide $4.70 by 47.31 lbs we’ll find that barley is valued at approximately $0.10 per lbs (number was rounded). A choenix weighs approximately 1.459 lbs, so if we multiply 1.459 by approximately $0.10 we’ll find that a choenix of barley is valued at approximately $0.14 (number was rounded). When we multiply 3 by approximately $0.14 we’ll find that three choenixes of barley is approximately $0.43 (number was rounded). When we divide $58 by approximately $0.43 we’ll find out prices would have to rise by 13338%
[2] “NEW Feed Grains Data: Yearbook Tables Barley and Oats: Cash prices at principal markets”. ERS/USDA updated Feb 11 2011. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains/Yearbook/FGYearbookTable14-Full.xls (used Barley, No 2. Feed, Minneapolis, MI on Table 14)
[3] The World Bank. “World Bank Commodity Price Data”. updated Feb 3 2011 http://blogs.worldbank.org/files/prospects/PINK_DATA(3).xls.
[4] Refer to Part 2 to see how I calculated the metal value of a denarius. The silver price used for the calculation in Part 3 was $31.37.
