Update: The article seems applicable again at the moment after Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announced on Egyptian state television that Hosni Mubarak has resigned. The situation is still very fluid though...
Many media outlets are now reporting that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak plans to step down and transfer his powers to Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman. This is a very significant development if the reports are true because every opposition group in Egypt has the common goal of wanting to see Mubarak leave. Here are some quick thoughts about what to watch for if Mubarak indeed steps down.
Mubarak’s resignation would be a big victory for the Egyptian protesters. However, it’s too soon for Egyptians to declare “mission accomplished” as some have already declared.
- Many Egyptians want the entire regime to leave so do not be surprised if the protests continue after people celebrate Mubarak’s imminent departure. Omar Suleiman is described by some as “Mubarak’s Mubarak” in the sense that he and Mubarak are closely aligned in their viewpoints and philosophy. If Suleiman refuses to yield to further calls for political reform we could easily be back to watching Egyptians protesting for change.
- The Egyptian military appears to be assuming control over the situation. While the Egyptian military is well-respected in Egypt, many Egyptians do not want to see a military coup. The Egyptian military at the moment appears to be siding with the protestors after a military commander told people earlier today "All your demands will be met today”. However, there’s no guarantee that the Egyptian military will yield power to a new civilian government in the future.
Nevertheless, the risk for major uprisings to spread to other countries in the region is significant now.
- People living in other countries in the region appear to be witnessing the replacement of the long-standing leader of Egypt, one of the most important countries in the entire region, in less than three weeks. Egyptians were inspired by the quick disposal of Tunisia's leader. Now people living in other countries in the region can use the Egyptians’ seemingly quick disposal of their leader as inspiration.
- Related to this is the possibility for an oil shock if the uprisings spread to the key oil producing countries of the region.
We still need to closely watch for the possibility that Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel gets disannulled. Mubarak’s imminent departure opens up the possibility for someone or some group who wants to disannul the treaty to eventually take power in Egypt.
Finally, the situation is still very fluid so something unimaginable could happen...
