In Part 1 of the End Times Cost of Food I shared some information I found about the price of wheat described in Revelation 6:6. I demonstrated that John suggested that there would be severe famine conditions on Earth by describing a wheat price that was between 13.33 and 16.67 times the wheat price that people were accustomed to paying the first century A.D.
Today I want to reexamine the statement that a measure (or choenix) of wheat will cost one denarius (penny in Revelation 6:6) because I think there is an alternative way to use this statement to get an idea of how much more expensive wheat will become in the future.
Another possible way to view the wheat price listed in Revelation 6:6 is to say that the actual value of a denarius will be able to purchase a choenix (dry quart) of wheat in the future.
- Rev 6:5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
- Rev 6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
In other words, the value of a denarius will be equal to the price for a choenix of wheat following the opening of the third seal.
The denarius is not currently utilized as money today, but it still has value. The denarius’s value is based on its metal content or the value of the metal it’s made from.
The Value of a Denarius Today
A denarius weighed approximately 3.36 grams and had 93.50% silver purity around the time when the Book of Revelation was written.[1] This translates to approximately 3.14 grams of silver or approximately 0.1 troy ounces of silver. Using this information we can estimate the metal value of a denarius today. The calculation is shown in the following table: Link
If you are somehow unable to see the table above the metal current value of a denarius is approximately $3.08.
The Choenix/Denarius Ratio for Wheat
After the opening of the third seal the price for a choenix of wheat will be equal to the value of a denarius. This statement is reflected in the following equation:
Price for a Choenix of Wheat = Value of a Denarius
The above equation can be rearranged using simple algebra to create a ratio between the value of a denarius and the price for a choenix of wheat which I’ll refer to henceforth as the “choenix/denarius ratio for wheat”. The choenix/denarius ratio for wheat is displayed in the following equation:
Price for a Choenix of Wheat = 1
Value of Denarius
The choenix/denarius ratio for wheat will equal 1 during the End Times because the value of a denarius will be the same as the price for a choenix of wheat (when you divide something by the same amount the result is equal to 1). In addition,
- The choenix/denarius ratio for wheat will be less than 1 when the value of a denarius is greater than the price for a choenix of wheat. This means that a denarius can buy more than a choenix of wheat.
- The choenix/denarius ratio for wheat will be greater than 1 when the value of a denarius is less than the price for a choenix of wheat. This means that a denarius is not enough to buy a choenix of wheat.
I was curious about how the choenix/denarius ratio for wheat has moved over time. I calculated the choenix/denarius for wheat each month over the past 40 + years using monthly wheat price data [2] and monthly silver price data [3] and used the results to create the following graph to see how the ratio has moved through time. Link
The choenix/denarius ratio for wheat has stayed well below 1 over the past 40 years, which suggests we have not yet seen anything close to the type of famine that will be seen during the End Times. The closest we’ve come to experiencing End Times-like famine conditions in the past 40 years was in the early 1970s, which included a wheat crisis in 1973.
- I located a Time Magazine article from November 1974 about a global food crisis that took place back in the early 1970s. Interestingly, the article opens quoting Mark 13:8, which says: “For nation shall rise against nation...and there shall be famines and troubles; these are the beginnings of sorrows”. The crisis back then apparently was triggered by multiple years of bad harvests, bad weather, drought, rising oil prices, and growing food demand from developing countries (sound familiar?).
Currently, the choenix/denarius ratio for wheat is near historical lows mostly due to the fact that the price of silver has risen much more than the price of wheat over the past several years. This is likely a temporary anomaly because there are concerns about a severe drought China, the world’s largest wheat producer, and wheat prices need to rise in order for prices to be at a level that fulfills Revelation 6:6.
- Since the choenix/denarius ratio for wheat is well below 1 it is safe to say that the conditions associated with the opening of the third seal are not yet prevalent on Earth.
Equalizing the Choenix/Denarius Ratio for Wheat
We can get some idea of how much the price of wheat may rise in the future by finding how much the price of wheat has to rise today in order to establish a choenix/denarius ratio for wheat equal to 1. The following is how to find out much the price of wheat must appreciate to create a choenix/denarius ratio for wheat equal to 1 today:
- The metal content of a denarius is valued at $3.08 at the time of this writing.
- In order to create a choenix/denarius ratio for wheat equal to 1 the value of a choenix must be equal to $3.08 as well.
- A choenix weighs approximately 1.843 lbs, so if we divide $3.08 by 1.843 we’ll find that the price of wheat would be valued at approximately $1.67 per lbs if the choenix/denarius ratio for wheat is equal to 1 today.
- A bushel of wheat is approximately 59.74 lbs so if we multiply $1.67 by 59.74 we’ll find that a bushel of wheat will be $99.82 or a 1095% price appreciation from its $9.1125 current price.
The calculation is summarized in the following table: Link
The calculation above suggests that the price of wheat must appreciate dramatically in the future. Saying that the price of wheat must increase by 1095% is the same as saying that the price of wheat must increase by 10.95 times. The 10.95 times price appreciation is within the 8 to 16 times price appreciation range mentioned by people who have commentated on Revelation 6:6.
The calculation of the wheat price above applies for a silver price of $30.49. The price of silver is unlikely going to be valued at $30.49 when the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 apply, so the price of wheat is unlikely going to be valued at $99.82 when the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 apply. The calculation above only illustrates what the wheat price would be if the conditions associated with Revelation 6:6 applied today.
Conclusion
The price of wheat is relatively cheap compared to what it is going to be in the future, especially compared to the time period following the opening of the third seal. Despite the concerns with this year’s wheat harvest, the degree that the price of wheat must increase now to be in accordance with Revelation 6:6 suggests that wheat supplies are relatively plentiful compared to what they’ll be like in the future. During the End Times wheat will be scarce as famine (potential both natural and man-made) impacts the Earth.
References
[1] Butler, Marion. “When Gold is King” 2 Feb. 2002 Last Accessed Feb 14. 2011. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/mbutler021502.html
[2] “Wheat Yearbook Tables”. ERS/USDA updated Jan 13 2011. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/wheat/yearbook/WheatYearbookTables-Full.xls (used No 2. soft red winter Chicago, Il on Table 19)
[3] The World Bank. “World Bank Commodity Price Data”. updated Feb 3 2011 http://blogs.worldbank.org/files/prospects/PINK_DATA(3).xls
