A few weeks ago Barack Obama announced that he would cancel U.S. plans to put up a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Obama “hoped” that cancelling the missile defense plans would cool down the tension between the U.S. and Russia and get Russia to help put pressure on Iran. The day I heard this news I almost wrote a blog tearing into Obama for making this decision on the 70th Anniversary of Nazis Germany’s invasion of Poland (September 1, 1939).
At the time I believed Obama made a huge blunder because he made the decision to cancel the plans unilaterally. There was no real negotiation between the United States and Russia before he made the decision. The missile defense shield was a very valuable bargaining chip the U.S. had in dealing with Russia. Russia does not have a lot of incentive to help the U.S. with Iran in the first place so the defense shield could have made a huge difference in getting Russia to publicly agree to help the U.S. Instead of using the missile defense shield to get the Russians to agree publicly to help with Iran, Obama blew the bargaining chip by deciding out of the blue to get rid of it.
Therefore, it should be no surprise that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that there is unlikely going to be sanctions on Iran today. Russia knows they are not obligated to help the U.S. and knows they do not have anything to be afraid of since Obama is a foreign policy neophyte and is quite naïve. To make matters worse, a senior Russian official signaled that Russian decision makers believe they have a right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes on the U.S. and NATO.
Russia is a force to be reckoned with in the international political arena. They control a large percentage Europe’s energy supply through the control of key oil and natural gas pipelines. Russia has a seat at the UN Security Council which they can use to foil any U.S. attempt to punish Iran. Russia has the nuclear capability to keep any power in check. To deal with the Russians a leader must display strength because Russians are like a big bully. Obama does not portray strength in the Russian’s eyes. Obama’s willingness to make unilateral decisions to weaken his side’s bargaining position is a signal to the Russians that they can walk all over him like a door mat.
There are some rumblings that the U.S. has reconsidered the decision and may now just modify its missile defense plans instead of cancelling them all together. I hope we modify the plans to add more protection than the original plan called for. The real importance of a missile defense shield is to not protect Eastern Europe from attack but to protect the U.S. from attack. The best chance to knock down a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile is to shoot it down from its highest point. The missile defense shield would be positioned to knock down missiles that are sent from some areas of Russia, Iran, and China. However, even if we choose to keep the missile defense shield as originally planned the damage has already been done. Russia knows that the U.S. has a leader who has no idea how politics at an international level work. I expect Russia to be emboldened and be a thorn at the U.S.’s side for years to come.
